WWE Summerslam 2025 odds & analysis

With the wrestling world hit with the loss of the divisive Hulk Hogan, it’s time to move on already. Summerslam is one of WWE’s big four shows throughout the year, acting like a round-up of the events after WrestleMania.

This time, it’s the first Summerslam that’s happening over two nights. Saturday and Sunday will be packed with matches, but it’s looking like it could be another unpredictable show. Odds have changed rapidly over the last week, and if we’re going off the last few big shows WWE has put on, it could harbor a few surprises.

The following odds are pulled from BetOnline and Paddy Power. They’re subject to change. This is not gambling advice.

• Tiffany Stratton (champ) – 7/2
• Jade Cargill – 1/6

• Gunther (champ) – 4/11
• CM Punk – 13/8

• Judgement Day (Raquel Rodriguez & Roxanne Perez) (Champs) – 7/4
• Charlotte Flair and Alexa Bliss – 1/3

• Randy Orton and Jelly Roll – 1/7
• Drew McIntyre and Logan Paul – 4/1

• Sami Zayn – 2/5
• Karrion Kross – 17/10

• Roman Reigns and Jey Uso – 1/7
• Bron Breakker and Bronson Reed – 10/3

• John Cena (Champ) – 4/7
• Cody Rhodes – 5/4

• Naomi (Champ) – 1/7
• Rhea Ripley – 4/1
• Iyo Sky – 7/1

• Becky Lynch (Champ) – 11/5
• Lyra Valkyria – 3/10

• Solo Sikoa (Champ) – 4/9
• Jacob Fatu – 6/4

• Dominik Mysterio (Champ) – 3/10
• AJ Styles – 11/5

• The Wyatt Sicks (Champs) – 3/2
• Andrade and Rey Fenix – 13/10
• DIY – 5/1
• Fraxiom – 5/2
• Motor City Machine Guns – 10/1
• The Street Profits – 7/1

I’m not entirely sure where Summerslam will take WWE, if I’m honest. Usually, you can gauge where the story is going. As you can tell from my last few analytical articles on its particular style of wrestling, the Triple H regime is all about ensuring no one is entirely sure.

With that said, let’s dig into the first night, which is a little lighter than the second night. The major events here are the Women’s and Heavyweight championship matches.

The smart money is predicting CM Punk will win, and it is looking likely. Since returning to WWE last year, Punk has been in the limelight as he’s a massive draw. People come to see him, and sticking the belt on him during a hot streak could be the choice here.

Punk won the gauntlet match to win his spot in the match, and I could see him going on to feud further with the Paul Heyman-represented group. With leader Seth Rollins out of the picture, but Heyman still in the picture on a regular basis, it’s a good group to set up as the overarching villains going forward. It’d also give Bron Breakker or Bronson Reed something to work towards while Rollins is injured.

It’s unfortunate that Jade Cargill is not particularly good in the ring, because she has everything else. However, it’s clear they want to push Cargill to the moon, and Stratton is the sacrificial lamb.

Cargill was moved from the Naomi circle, opening up her up to far more intriguing options. It’s just that Cargill is still clearly green, despite being in the business for a few years. Stratton has been a good champion, but it often feels as if she vanishes from the mind after she’s off-screen.

Between The Judgement Day’s Roxanne Perez and Raquel Rodriguez, and challengers Charlotte Flair and Alexa Bliss, the theme here is friendship. In recent weeks, The Judgement Day women have proven that they’re an excellent team without Liv Morgan all over the place.

Perez has already been involved in a successful defence, and if WWE went with these two, it’d be an interesting way to go if they keep them as the champ until Morgan returns. However, recent episodes featuring the newly put-together Bliss and Flair have been quite popular on social media.

People are trying to find a reason to like Charlotte Flair, as her innate ability in the ring is often more appreciated than who she is on screen. People are just fed up with her coming in, winning a belt, and sucking the air out of the room. With the Bliss team up, it’s giving her a chance to show a new side to her. Not only as a character and wrestler, but maybe as she is behind the scenes on TV.

It’s looking likely that WWE will put their efforts behind Bliss and Flair for now, until the inevitable team breakup, where I’d suspect Judgement Day will swoop back in.

We’re back with a celebrity involved in a wrestling match, and it’s Jelly Roll. The rapper is joining forces with Randy Orton in one of my most hated types of matches. You’re telling me that this non-wrestler is going to be able to duke it out with actual wrestlers? I’d suspect it’ll be a Jelly Roll and Orton win, with fans (and myself) fuming as Jelly Roll gets the pin.

In happier news, Roman Reigns is back on our screens and is partnering with cousin Jey Uso to fend off the Heyman group of Bron Breakker and Bronson Reed. This one could go either way, but if there is a Samoan loss, it’ll be Jey eating that pin. Breakker and Reed need to come out of this match looking strong, as without Rollins in the picture, it’s sucked the wind out of the momentum they had.

The Zayn and Kross match is another 50/50 split, regardless of where the smart money is. Commentary and WWE have repeatedly mentioned that Zayn hasn’t managed to win any major championships in a while or ever, really. If Zayn wins here, I could see him on the fast track to potentially getting into the title scene.

Night 2 of Summerslam is a little more thrilling on the card, but does have the chance to be a bit too much in some cases. There are a lot of stipulations and match types that allow for a lot of shenanigans mid-match.

John Cena turned heel (villain) at Elimination Chamber, siding with The Rock and Travis Scott. It’s the first time he’s been a baddie in WWE, and it’s ultimately been a bit of a wash.

The upcoming Summerslam match is Cody Rhodes’ chance to retrieve the belt, and for WWE and Cena to do the right thing. That’s to end this fairly boring heel run and have what limited time Cena’s available be a more positive experience.

At least it’s a Street Fight, meaning we won’t have to see the same bland match out of Cena and Rhodes once again. It’s surprisingly easier to pull off a good match with gimmicks than it is to do a straight-up match, considering that Cena has obligations in Hollywood that need him in tip-top shape.

The smart money believes in Naomi, I believe in Naomi. Her recent cash-in of the Money in the Bank contract to win the women’s belt was a little bit of a shock. However, it’d be too soon to have put all this effort into totally rebranding her as a heel and then whisk the belt away.

There’s also the fact that wrestlers like Rhea Ripley and Iyo Sky don’t need the belt to be popular. Throw them into a feud, have them actually tussle in decent matches, and they’ll produce gold. It allows for the title scene on the main roster women’s division to freshen up a little bit, too.

With a stipulation attached that if Lynch wins, Valkryia can’t challenge for the belt again, it’s shenanigans time. That’s why the match is a No Disqualification match, allowing them to explain away a potential Valkyria loss on that basis, rather than just her simply losing clean.

Lynch is also potentially going to be out of the WWE ring again in the coming months, however. She recently signed on to do a TV pilot and presumably a full series of the new show Movers, which would mean she could lose out simply due to her schedule. It’s not clear when the show would start shooting, but if it’s not soon, then locking Valkyria out of the mid-card belt would be a lack of foresight.

Unless, of course, the young star is being moved onto bigger and better things. Who knows? Maybe Bayley will get involved again and help her win the match.

Solo Sikoa and Jacob Fatu are running their United States championship match over once more. It’s in a steel cage, so expect this to be the big finish to the feud. In wrestling, if the steel cage is introduced in some capacity, it means we’re seeing the end of that particular storyline.

Both Samoans have a decent chance of coming out of the cage with the belt, which I suspect that Fatu will win here, overcoming the nefarious Sikoa. Before Sikoa won, Fatu had a bigger plate of foes to go up against, and it’d be great to see that swing back round again.

Various comedy vignettes have been aired between AJ Styles and Dom Mysterio, with Styles angling for a title match. However, Mysterio has always had an excuse, and it looks like his luck has run out.

Here, it seems that this match could be used as a platform to allow either wrestler to branch out a little. Dom recently appeared at AAA, attacking Dragon Lee and Hijo del Vikingo, which could indicate that the newly WWE acquired company could be Mysterio’s new place to torment in the future. If he lost the Intercontinental belt, he could be easily inserted into the title scene in the Mexican company. If not, then he can get embroiled in a more international feud.

Meanwhile, AJ Styles did make an appearance at TNA’s Slammiversary. Styles was a staple wrestler of TNA until about 2014, when he left to go to Japan. Since 2016, he’s been a WWE man, but with the new WWE partnership between the two, it could be Styles branching out to other companies with the belt on the line. This would be similar to the current TNA World title being held by Trick Williams on WWE’s NXT.

I’ll say it now, if The Wyatt Sicks don’t win here, then it might be time to scrap the group. The stop-start nature of the successor group to the late Bray Wyatt has been, frankly, a shambles. Injuries, vanishing from TV, and some egregiously cheesy online marketing have fundamentally come up short.

The group in recent weeks has regained some momentum, but they have to win tonight to solidify the group as anything but the worst of the Wyatt shtick. Massive threat, but is all bark, no bite because somehow, creative heads behind the scenes can’t figure out how to make a spooky villain.

The rest of the tag teams here I can’t see walking away with the belts. Fraxiom are too new and seem to be leaning more into the “split tag team feud”.

Motor City Machine Guns haven’t really gotten a chance to shine yet in WWE, despite being fan favorites in other companies since 2006.

DIY and The Street Profits are able bodies in the tag team arena, but again, it doesn’t seem like WWE wants to back them much more than they are right now.

Lastly, Rey Fenix and Andrade seem like they’re put together because of where they come from, rather than anything else. Let me see those two wrestle each other, not team up.

Summerslam airs August 2 and 3 on Peacock in the US and Netflix everywhere else in the world.